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The year 2020 is the year when a well-off society will be fully established and the "Thirteenth Five-Year Plan" ends. These important nodes determine the need to keep economic growth in a reasonable range; and under the downward pressure of the economy, the task of stabilizing growth is becoming increasingly serious. Set targets for next year, where will the sources of growth power come from?
Recently, the Standing Committee of the Provincial and Municipal Committees, the Executive Meetings of the Provincial and Municipal Governments, and the Economic Work Conference have been successively held to summarize the local economic work in 2019, analyze the current economic situation, and deploy the economic work in 2020. These meetings all emphasized the need to ensure a reasonable growth in the economy and a steady improvement in quality.
Stable domestic demand is key
Yi Xiaoguang, president of the Chongqing Institute of Comprehensive Economics, told First Financial that for Chongqing, steady progress has been made in 2019, and the economic growth rate has picked up compared with last year. Strategic emerging industries have grown rapidly in structure and need to be consolidated next year The achievements made in China have further improved the quality of development.
In 2018, Chongqing's gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 6%, and Chongqing's GDP grew by 6.3% in the first three quarters of this year. Yi Xiaoguang said that now there is a certain foundation for steady growth. Next year is how to further consolidate, how to ensure a certain growth rate, and ensure the formation of a steady growth trend.
Yi Xiaoguang believes that stable growth must first stabilize demand, and there is still great uncertainty in the international economic situation. The first is domestic demand, which is the two wheels of investment and consumption. The driving force for medium- and long-term growth is to deepen supply-side reforms so that new factor contributions account for a greater proportion, increase industrial energy levels, and have more development potential and competitiveness.
Therefore, all regions are emphasizing that investment and consumption are simultaneously pursued. The Hunan Provincial Economic Working Conference proposed that funds should be directed to areas where supply and demand are mutually beneficial and have multiplier effects, such as advanced manufacturing, people's livelihood construction, and infrastructure shortcomings, to promote the "dual upgrade" of industry and consumption, and to play an effective role of investment and consumption to stimulate the economy. effect.
The Hubei Provincial Development and Reform Working Conference held on December 28 proposed to give full play to the role of investment in "determining the sea god", focus on progress, early stage, elements, and reserves, and promote a number of major projects to start early, build early, and take effect early; Accelerate the construction of new consumer facilities, create new consumer supplies, and promote mutual promotion and advancement of consumer upgrading and industrial upgrading.
The Henan Provincial Development and Reform Working Conference held on December 25th proposed that we should focus on key links, rationally expand effective investment, strengthen the leading role of major projects, accelerate the release of consumption potential, vigorously support the development of the real economy, and ensure a reasonable increase in economic growth. Steady improvement in quality.
From a national perspective, from January to November 2019, national fixed asset investment increased by 5.2% year-on-year. The growth rate was the same as that of January to October, but the whole year still showed a downward trend, especially with double digits in previous years. Compared with the growth rate, the decline in growth rate is relatively obvious, and the western region, the fastest-growing region in previous years, experienced a large decline.
Huang Yong, vice president of the Guizhou Academy of Social Sciences, told First Financial that while Guizhou's economy continues to lead, the downward pressure on the economy is also great, and the subsequent growth of investment is weak, mainly due to the pressure on local debt and new sources of investment and financing Lack of waiting, and Guizhou's economy is still driven by investment.
Therefore, the role of consumption has become increasingly prominent. In the first three quarters of this year, the gross domestic product (GDP) was 679.7998 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.2%. Among the three major needs, the contribution rate of final consumption expenditure was 60.5%, the contribution rate of capital formation was 19.8%, and the net export contribution rate of goods and services was 19.6%. Consumption has become the main driver of economic growth.
Last year, the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council issued "Several Opinions on Improving the Consumption System and Mechanism to Further Stimulate the Consumption Potential of Residents". Recently, 14 departments such as the Ministry of Commerce jointly issued and issued the "Guiding Opinions on the Cultivation and Construction of an International Consumer Center City", which proposed that a number of international consumer center cities with global influence should be built within five years.
Chang Tiewei, deputy director of the Department of Employment Income Distribution and Consumption of the National Development and Reform Commission, said at a recent conference on accelerating the construction of an international consumption center city held in Chengdu that promoting consumption expansion and quality improvement is of great significance and will help optimize the significant proportion of the national economy. It will help promote high-quality economic development, help increase the vitality of economic development, and help meet people's needs for a better life.
On December 16th, Chengdu held a conference to accelerate the construction of an international consumption center city, and proposed that by 2012, Chengdu will form a trillion-scale consumer market, with external consumption accounting for more than 30%, and the average annual contribution rate of consumption to economic growth will reach more than 60%. ; By 2015, a comprehensive international consumer center with global influence and attractiveness will be built.
Chongqing has also recently released the Implementation Opinions on Accelerating the Construction of an International Consumer Center City. It is proposed that by 2222, the average annual growth rate of the city's total consumption will be higher than the growth rate of regional GDP, the contribution rate of consumption to economic growth will exceed 55%, the total retail sales of consumer goods will exceed 1.1 trillion yuan, and the average annual growth of tourism foreign exchange income will increase. By 2015, the contribution rate of consumption to economic growth will exceed 60%, the total retail sales of consumer goods will exceed 1.3 trillion yuan, and tourism foreign exchange income will increase by more than 12% annually.
Tapping new growth potential
Chang Tiewei also said that while seeing a steady increase in consumption, we should also see that the current pressure on consumption is also great. The growth rate from January to October was still in the low range. Among them, in April and October, the growth rate of zero consumption in these two months was 7.2%, which was the lowest point in many years.
"At the same time, consumers’ willingness and ability to consume has declined, and the growth of some service consumption areas has slowed down. Traditional consumption has entered a platform period, so the consumption situation is stable and under pressure. Infrastructure and environmental construction also need to be improved. The consumer market needs to be deepened. To dig for activation, there are still many institutional obstacles to be broken. "Chang Tiewei said.
The pressure on consumption is evident in some regions. For example, since the beginning of this year, the operation of the consumer goods market in Xi'an has slowed down. In the first three quarters, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 35.053 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.7%. Among them, the retail sales of consumer goods above designated size was 17.402 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.4%.
The Xi'an Bureau of Statistics analyzes that the slowdown in consumption is due to the continuous decline in retail sales of automobiles, which account for nearly one-third of the retail sales in Xi'an, which affects the decline in sales of petroleum and products. In addition, the slowdown in sales of traditional large-scale key trade companies and the shutdown of some companies have become important reasons for the slowdown in the growth of the consumer goods market in Xi'an.
However, under the guidance of the policy of stimulating consumption, with the abolition of automobile purchase restrictions in Guiyang as a sign, automobile restrictions have been cancelled or adjusted in many places across the country, and national ministries and commissions have also issued multiple documents to encourage automobile consumption. Relaxation and cancellation of purchase restrictions will trigger dominoes and promote the consumption potential of the automotive industry.
In this context, automobile consumption has begun to pick up. Statistics from the Sichuan Provincial Bureau of Statistics show that since August, the growth rate of automobile consumption, which accounts for 10% of Sichuan's social retail sales and 29% of retail sales of products of enterprises above designated size, has continued to decline. The situation has contributed significantly to the acceleration of the growth of the total retail sales of consumer goods in the province.
Yi Xiaoguang said that consumption needs to provide effective supply, and the needs of ordinary people, which also corresponds to supply-side reform, establish a platform to meet new consumer demand, cultivate the main body to promote consumption, keep the market main body active, and introduce corresponding policies to promote The enthusiasm of commodity producers to do business.
In fact, not only consumption, but also huge space for investment. Yi Xiaoguang said that the development of new industries can drive effective investment. With the transformation and transformation of the economic structure, the potential for investment is still huge. In the process of cultivating a new economic form, there is still a process of forming related infrastructure. In the process of industrial structure adjustment, there is still huge room for investment.
Ding Renzhong, the deputy leader of the macro group of the Sichuan Provincial Decision Advisory Committee, told First Financial that ensuring the completion of the poverty alleviation task next year is a top priority for Sichuan's politics and economy, and requires increased investment, which will also bring significant investment. At the same time, with the improvement of the business environment and stable expectations, private investment will be pulled up.
Edit: Zhang Chi